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[Ferro-Alloys.com] The supply and demand dynamics in China's steel market look set to remain in balance over the second half of 2020 as its steel capacity expansion has slowed, while downstream infrastructure and construction demand is being aided. As a result, S&P Global Platts maintains its 2020 forecast that China's pig iron and crude steel output will increase by around 1.7% and 2%, respectively, year on year.
This will take crude steel output to 1,016 million mt for 2020, up from 996 million mt in 2019, and breaching the 1 billion mt mark for the first time, Platts estimates.
The construction sector will continue supporting steel demand in H2, steel demand from infrastructure construction is likely to grow even stronger in H2 than in Q2. Market sources estimated that China's infrastructure investment increased by about 8% year on year in May, based on NBS data.
Platts expects China's steel margins to stay healthy in H2, though it is unlikely they will reach the peaks seen in H1 2019. In tandem with the country's steel capacity expansion program, China's steel margins have trended downwards since 2018.
Source: S&P Global Platts
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