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[Ferro-Alloys.com]

  The tight supply of coke market in the first quarter of 2020 is expected to continue, because by the end of 2020, the coke production capacity will be centralized, and it will take 2-3 months for the new production capacity to be put into full production. On the cost side, if the coking coal import policy is still strict, the supply rate will be tight in the first quarter. It is expected that the strong coking coal price will form a strong support for coke. In the second quarter, with the increase of coke output of new production capacity, the supply will gradually increase. However, as the downstream enters the peak consumption season, the demand will increase significantly compared with the first quarter, so the supply of coke in the first half of the year will remain tight. On the one hand, the new production capacity gradually entered the full production stage, and the output increased compared with the first half of the year. On the other hand, with the improvement of the economic situation, the stimulus policy or gradual withdrawal, the growth rate of construction steel decreased, which restricted the consumption of coke. To sum up, we think that the price of coke may have peaked in the medium term. In the first quarter of 2021, it may maintain a strong trend, but it may gradually weaken. The rate in the first half of the year is probably higher than that in the second half of the year.

• [Editor:Catherine Ren]