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Strong export activity has helped prop up domestic US ferrous scrap pricing, but sector players and observers are now speculating as to if or how long the support will last.

 

In a report released to Platts Monday, Canaccord Adams analyst Eric Glover wrote about a recent series of meetings held with management of Schnitzer Steel, a major exporter of ferrous scrap. "Schnitzer stated that it is too early to tell if customers are rebuilding inventory/stockpiling, or whether the renewed buying is driven by sustainable end-market demand pull," Glover noted. "Management commented that overseas customers are looking for shorter-term deliveries, suggesting that foreign steel mills are simply buying enough scrap to meet their near-term production needs (and not necessarily building up their scrap inventories)," he added.

 

One source at a major Turkish rebar mill told Platts that some of his counterparts had used all their scrap and now found themselves short for the feedstock. He said these other mills were awaiting delivery of recent bookings, totaling more that 1 million mt for April and first half of May delivery. The rebar mill executive contended some other producers did not foresee the recent uptick in rebar demand. "They did not estimate that the market could go upward despite the economical crisis," he said, adding that Middle East and North African markets were showing strength.

 

One US Midwest mill executive expressed doubt about the export price support having any legs. "The export buyers will pull back after getting their bellies full and the price will fade," he said. If export demand did continue, however, he said that any improvement in US steel production rates would certainly provide upward support for scrap prices. "At this point, however, that doesn't seem to be in the cards," he added.

 

Glover expressed similar sentiment. "We must acknowledge that from our conversations with those in the [scrap] industry, there remains an abundance of caution, as few seem willing to bet that a "real" recovery is actually under way," he wrote in his report. –Platts