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[Ferro-Alloys.com] Global thermal coal prices are likely to rise in the current quarter on winter restocking in the Northern Hemisphere, UBS forecast Monday.

 

Internationally-traded prices for Australian, South African and Indonesian coals have been floundering since late July after being pressured down by warm weather in the Northern Hemisphere, dormant global economic activity and record-high production rates, the bank said in a report.

 

However, production cuts in recent months have "re-balanced" trade, and thermal coal buyers are now poised to deliver a pre-winter restocking price lift over November-December, UBS said. "We expect the prices to lift throughout Q4, ahead of the Northern hemisphere winter. Any recovery in India's economy/trade will also be a key price-driver," UBS said.

 

UBS advised thermal coal industry participants to monitor three trends: the recovery of global prices, which could prompt a partial switch back to coal-fired power generation in North America; the re-direction of coal exports by Indonesia and South Africa to their domestic markets; and the ramping up of China's coal production capacity, which could reduce its import demand.